Fidel Castro has led the island nation of Cuba for almost fifty years. His recent stomach surgery has left him weakened and unlikely to resume full, active control of Cuba. As with the end of any prolonged dictatorial rule,the departure of Castro in Cuba is likely to be accompanied by major shifts in the politics and lifestyle of its residents. Sitting just 90 miles away from the United States, the twists and turns of Cuba are likely to be influenced by the U. S. and to affect the U. S. in return. One thing is certain, Cuba after Castro is coming soon and it may turn out to resemble any one of these scenarios.
1. Raul takes the reigns. Right now with Fidel Castro still trying to rebuild his health after serious surgery, his brother Raoul appears to be holding tight to the reins of government in Cuba. Many assume that what Raoul does has received the imprimatur from Fidel and so most accept his directives. As long as Fidel Castro lives it is likely that Raoul, himself a revolutionary, will maintain ultimate authority in Cuba. This would mean that there would be little change in the way the island nation manages its day to day affairs and its international relations.
The question is, what happens to Raoul when Fidel passes on? Does Raoul have enough family charisma to keep the ship of state afloat? Will people give the same degree of fidelity to Raoul as they did to his brother? Can a man without a real mandate rule effectively or for very long? This all remains to be seen. At present Raoul shows little inclination to give up the reins and the Cuban people seem in no rush to demand he turn them over. The country could continue in its current direction for the foreseeable future.
2. Drift Another possible scenario is that after Fidel Castro dies, the country, instead of remaining in the hands of one man, simply drifts from one Cuban strong man to another. It may well be that once Fidel passes on, that his brother Raoul will determine that he has no continuing interest in running the affairs of state or he may be gently eased out of power by other contenders.
Needless to say, there are plenty of potential dictators sitting the wings waiting for this opportunity. It is quite possible that they will simply take turns wearing the mantle of power for short periods of time until finally one assumes control who has both popular support and military connections. This combination is what held Castro in power for half a century and it is likely to be what his eventual successor will have to establish as well. In the meantime it is quite possible that the country will find itself in a state of drift, moving from one potential leader to another until one emerges in control.
3. The United States may have a powerful effect on the future of Cuba Just as local Cubans have lived through a half century of Castro's rule, so too have both Americans and Cuban exiles living in America. A possible scenario in Cuba after Castro might be that those Cubans who have lived out the Castro era in the U. S. will make an effort to return with their grown children and grandchildren to the land of their birth and play an effective role in establishing the next government.
It is also possible that the U. S. itself might recognize the time after Castro as the optimum moment to reestablish more normal and friendly relations with Cuba. By encouraging more natural trade relations, re-instituting open travel and by offering aid, the United States may find that it can once again play an important and influential role in the development of a country that is one of our closest neighbors. The reestablishment of strong ties with the U. S. , though unlikely, has the potential of fueling a welcomed improvement in the economy of Cuba and the lifestyle of her people.
4. Other Latin American countries may influence the development of Cuba after Castro. Cuba may share history and geography with the United States but Cuba also clearly shares third world status and common desires of modernization with a number of Latin American Nations. Cuba is already a member of NAM the Non Allied Movement that brings together 118 Third World nations to address common needs and concerns.
Closer at hand, Cuba has worked to put itself on a solid footing with Venezuela and Bolivia. Together the three nations have referred to themselves as the “axis of hope”. There is great camaraderie among these three impoverished nations. Hugo Chavez, the socialist leader of Venezuela is a powerful force among Latin American countries and his potential influence of the development of Cuba after Castro cannot be underestimated.
There are many possibilities for Cuba after Castro. Perhaps what the majority of people in Cuba are really looking for is leadership that will resuscitate a nation that has never succeeded in achieving the dreams of the post Batista revolutionaries who followed Castro. Of course there is no doubt that as long as Castro lives, all of these alternatives, as interesting as they might be, are only tempting possibilities. The future in Cuba, as the past, still depends on the life and death of Fidel Castro.
